And On the Sixth Day, He Rose...

All of the wailing and gnashing of teeth following Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's major stroke last week was certainly to be expected. When addressing the topic of the survival prospects of Sharon's newborn party, Kadima, most in the mainstream press and the blogosphere, in both the US and Israel, were decidedly not optimistic. But hey, that was then, and this is 72 hours later. Sharon's doctors are now debating about when and how to bring him out of the induced coma that they put him in after his arrival at the hospital five days ago. Although his prognosis for survival is high, the level of impairment brought on by the stroke is still an open question and will remain so until he regains consciousness—presuming, of course, that he does.

What seems to have largely escaped the media's notice however is the fact that during the last few days, when Sharon's prognosis was looking far more grim, NO ONE seems to have bolted from Kadima—or at least I can't find any reports online of anyone quitting the party. There are a few stories concerning Labour's desire to get Shimon Perez, it's former leader, to return to its fold, but so far it looks like it's not going to happen. There are also a new poll out, the first conducted after Sharon's stroke, which suggests that Sharon's vision may be more powerful than the man himself. Kadima is still on track to win 40 seats in March, although pollsters say the results may be skewed by empathy for the stricken Sharon.

Even before Sharon's stroke I personally felt that the force of his vision (h/t: Israpundit) would prove strong enough to give Kadima better than even odds should something happen to him. And now, after the fact and given the indications, I'm even more confident that Kadima will persevere. I can see Sharon recovering at least enough to serve as the titular leader of his new party, even if doing nothing other than smiling and waving to followers through backseat windows, while others such as acting PM Ehud Olmert do all of the heavy lifting of domestic political reform, completing the security barrier and then further disengagement from the Palestinian territories. Without Sharon, Kadima stands to receive a fair chance at success, while with Sharon—even a diminished Sharon—Kadima may prove unstoppable.